Dwarf Fortress’ graphical upgrade provides a new way into a wildly wonky game

Show HN: Have fun betting virtual (not real) money on predictions from HN users

I wanted to see how difficult it would be to build a web app using a sub-$300 android smartphone. Decided to build a fun predictions website where you could bet virtual (not real) money on predictions made by others, and also make predictions of your own.

Building it turned out to be considerably easier and more fun than I anticipated.

Primary tools used were:

# QuickEdit as the mobile code editor (Note: the free version of the QuickEdit app is riddled with ads, it shows an advert each time you close a tab, but it unfortunately had the best UI of the 3 or so Android code editors I tested. Ended up using NetGuard to block it from retrieving & displaying ads),

# PHP for the Backend ( custom PHP microframework I've used and built on over the past few years ).

# jQuery for the frontend js (cringing) - it appears I'm simply too lazy to learn React/Vue/et al. Every once in a while, I pick one of them to learn, but I always end up returning to jQuery - or time-permitting - amateur level vanilla JS.

# Bootstrap for the CSS - Battle-tested. For a purely backend dev with minimal design skills, good ol' Bootstrap (and in a growing number of cases, Tailwind) is always a life saver.

# Whole thing is hosted on 2 VMs (1 hosting the web app, and 1 hosting Redis & MySQL).

# As to the site itself, it turned out to be pretty cool to play around with. Go there, view the predictions, bet on the predictions you believe will come true, or against the ones you think will not. You get $50,000 to bet with (not real money). No signup is required to bet, but a quick signup is required to make a prediction. Hope you guys like it, and please be ruthless in telling me of any bugs you've found.

So go on here => kudotap.com

And Have Fun!



armchairhacker 11d
What if someone posts a very likely or unlikely bet (e.g. "the next Mega Millions numbers will be ..."? Can everyone bet $30,000 against and then everyone gets $30,000?

You may want a system where, the more skewed a bet is, the less money gets paid out by the majority side and more money gets paid to the minority. That way, bets like those don't really get you anything, unless you bet the unlikely case and win, then you get a well-deserved jackpot.

sshine 11d
Behavioural economists as well as poker players know that people make very different decisions when the money is real. The psychology is different.
algo_trader 11d
Interesting. Why a 300$ phone?

Can u share how long it took to build and what is your day job ?

mwint 11d
Oh how I wish this existed a couple years ago, when everyone was making various shades of "the world is going to end" predictions. I would be a virtual billionaire!
aoeusnth1 11d
Is there a good reason to use this over Manifold (http://manifold.markets)?
jtvjan 11d
My preferred way of editing text on Android is to run Vim in Termux. If there's a terminal editor that you like (nano, emacs, joe, ed are all available too), try running it through there.
echelon 11d
This is awesome! Kudos (no pun)!

I'd really like to wager real money. Due to gambling laws, I'd be fine if this went to charity, in a similar vein to longbets.

It's more about vision and narrative than winning money, anyway. Building esteem for sometimes contrarian viewpoints. (If you can predict where the world is moving, you can make money on that regardless.)

An internet track record would be amazing.

aliljet 11d
I can't not make this joke: Where do I send my BTC?
TheCowboy 11d
One ever underrated challenge with prediction markets is creating clear and concise rules for interesting questions, while the easy part is the tech powering the exchange.

For example, "James McIntyre is predicting that: There will be a global stock market crash in 2024." What constitutes a crash here? Or "Patricia Davenport is predicting that: An absolutely massive natural gas discovery will be made by a Southern African country before the end of 2023." has no clear meaning.

alwillis 11d
Can't count the number of times I've wanted something like this for Hacker News!

There have been quite a few hot takes (especially about Apple) where I would have bet against that person's prediction happening. Glad it's an option now.

codetrotter 11d
> Please fill out the 'Last Name' field (ensure it contains a least 2 characters (and does not contain any unusual special character)).

Please allow a wide range of Unicode characters. I am not able to sign up, because the site does not allow me to type my last name, it seems.

The letter “ø” is not an unusual special character..

kaputmi 11d
Without odds/probabilities this is much less interesting!
vagab0nd 11d
Interesting site. How do you decide on the result of a bet? Where do you get the truth? What if the bet is described ambiguously? Or worse yet, something like "This prediction will be false".
texaslonghorn5 11d
if I click "View the Latest Predictions & Bets on Kudotap" on the homepage and then go back to the homepage, the button is unclickable the second time
exabrial 11d
There is _literally_ nothing wrong with your javascript on the page, FYI. stick with your toolset.
habibur 11d
Order by most active bets at the top.

Right now the page starts with dead claims and you find pretty active and good ones while scrolling down.

pbhjpbhj 11d
It's this just mining HN hive mind for "insider" information?
hathym 11d
It would be more fun if you can bet your real HN points :)
dvh 11d
It doesn't allow making prediction to 2030 so I just leave it here:

I predict that by 2030 none of the top 10 US car manufacturer will offer self driving in their cars (except for simple autobreaking). Even those manufacturers that offer some self driving now will stop offering it by 2030.

demarq 11d
This is a banger!!

I already know I’m going to like it