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I was listening to the latest episode of the WSJ podcast (https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/the-ai-economic-doomsday-report-that-shook-wall-street/d9b12d37-a743-4a8c-afb6-2488aa9e812f) and what puzzles me is how 2–3 months ago the market feared that the “AI bubble” from tech companies’ trillions of dollars in CAPEX spending would turn out to be useless because AI seemed to have little or no real use. Indeed, after every earnings report with high CAPEX, the stocks dropped.

Now (over the past 10–15 days) the fear seems to have flipped: that AI will replace programmers, videogame developers, financial advisors, and other similar professions, and companies connected to those sectors are dropping (see the S&P Software & Services Select Industry Index https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-software-services-select-industry-index/#overview, -20% since the beginning of the year).

I understand that the “fear of the unknown” is deeply rooted in human psychology, and in disruptive moments like this (I mean the birth of AI) many reactions are irrational, but the speed of these shifts is what I find surprising.

What do you think about the situation in the next few months? What could be the reason for the next drop? It almost seems like people are looking for a justification for selling, rather than selling because of a specific reason.